FROM OPINION TO ACTION- WHY INDIVIDUALS MAKE THE TRANSITION FROM BELIEF TO ACTION
This article seeks to provide a synopsis of some of the key observations relating to the circumstances under which individuals are more likely to make the transition from a passive supporter of violent extremism to someone prepared to act on. Four key circumstances/conditions are critical (usually in combination) in this process.
CONFLUENCE OF EVENTS TO GENERATE INTENSE EMOTIONS AND/OR GRIEVANCE
A convergence of events that can lead to an intensification of emotion and grievance. It is the intensity of these emotions, and their personalised nature, that distinguish them from those that might typically be experienced by the broader radical milieu. These emotions can be quite varied, but usually entail a deep sense of personal humiliation and shame, coupled with anger and hate. While the events that precipitate this intensification may vary (eg, termination of employment; police or law enforcement attention; perceptions of personal victimisation) the event/s serve to validate or reinforce pre-existing ideological beliefs, particularly those aspects that emphasise victimisation of their identity group.
EXPOSURE TO MEANS AND OPPORTUNITY CAPABLE OF RE-CALIBRATING PERCEIVED CHANCES OF SUCCESS
The presence of this circumstance has the capacity to transform an individual’s goals from the aspirational to the practical or the achievable. In other words, it can alter perceptions around the likelihood of success. This circumstance is likely to be more important where the action entails an element of complexity, including dependency on access to materials, technical knowledge, or involves planning and preparation beyond the rudimentary. The circumstances or events that can lead to a recalibration of an individual’s perceptions of the likelihood of success can take various forms. What is important is that they can repudiate or challenge individual perceptions of the physical, and even psychological, barriers to action. This can even come down to a question of simple convenience or unexpected opportunity - a chance meeting with a police officer which gives rise to an unanticipated access to a target or serendipitous association with others who are able to supply practical or emotional support.
COSTS ASSOCIATED WITH ACTION ARE LOWERED AND THE COSTS OF NOT ACTING ARE RAISED
As a general rule, those that undertake acts of terrorism, have reached a point in their lives where they believe they have little to lose. In other words, the costs associated with engaging in action are lowered to the point where the negative consequences of acting are diminished or neutralised. This amounts to more than mere discontent, unhappiness or restlessness. It usually represents a defining moment in which the individual feels that their current lives have become intolerable, hopeless or untenable. The reasons for this despair or desperation can take various forms, and may include a profound sense of shame or humiliation, including that which has its roots in behaviour that is deeply personal and private; self-destructive behaviour that has reached a point where the consequences have become unbearable or have obscured the possibility of any future (eg, drug addiction or suicidal ideation); and, the loss of worldly possessions, opportunities or significant personal relationships, the effects of which are irreversible (thereby contributing to a perception that one has passed a point of no return).
INTENSIFICATION OF PERCEIVED PRESSURE OR NEED TO ACT
Individuals have reached a point where they feel compelled to act. This compulsion can be attributed to a variety of causes, ranging from the intensely emotional on the one hand, to those rooted in perceptions of divine instruction or guidance on the other. These can produce a deep sense of crisis or drama within individuals, acting as a defining moment or tipping point characterised by the inevitability of action. In other words, individuals reach a stage where they feel they have no choice but to act and that they are being overtaken by circumstances and events (that is, a momentum has developed over which they no longer have control). Reaching this “point of no return” in turn can lead individuals to surrender themselves to events, producing, at least in some cases, a suspension of independent judgement and thought. This perception of inevitability may be interpreted by individuals in various ways, including a sense of being backed into a corner; the need to heed divine signs or omens; and, that life has become unendurable.